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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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+ Q8 `6 x' k; f# K. j西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率4 E8 U- j5 P  @2 i" _- G* v& p2 F
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:" M' Q! w, T9 X2 Y7 y! M) L0 `

1 D4 l& d( F6 F皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 0 r0 S/ U% |$ X& r6 J
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?2 J0 ]- l( W/ {* r. q8 v
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)" _" S% _. G5 y0 l+ O6 Q

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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性2 O/ t5 E9 e8 S; \1 z( F0 Z6 f
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。4 A1 U2 E8 T, R% U% a( G% r6 U
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。/ w- {" f. Z8 R( Y( g" f5 F" l

* u7 ]0 Q; O) x( J/ n% U) `$ F你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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0 m% m! p3 Q5 G/ |3 T0 P9 E9 c6 h正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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; ]# a# i* W" X40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
, M% d  z+ |5 Y1 J/ ~60%的机会你会一无所有& l' V6 h! @% f" P6 \& k, @6 u
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 ! w4 G, O  i) O% i0 `' s
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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9 x3 e$ [7 V5 S6 p) f增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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& W( o4 L% L6 }. }& k凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
* t# y0 L' R9 s  q: IP=获胜机会
, \) y: v1 m$ aO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)' t" {/ l' ?- i4 R

% j: k7 m3 {$ {2 ?; L5 ]+ i首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。! r7 A/ x% d' ~2 Y

8 ?8 Z. G" F( N: n9 \好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。+ _- J9 Z- i$ F# j3 y/ R

! Y9 m# U) n; q, x4 D" G1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)' s6 C2 t( a& L5 Z" W

3 |# e+ d& r, V1 R0 i5 [" `3 D) H8 nA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢. @' V/ ]$ C' }1 x! {4 G; T2 b

; E) k' H+ d9 h) E/ Q2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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. @( N) Y$ E4 p: BA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)) N& j( A: k+ L3 _& C. z# k

- L8 m9 J/ s! W  w$ rA=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)2 w' S* z8 o/ I1 [5 @

! h, J  e3 h* U" E1 r3 ?A= -0.2 7 v5 E/ m" W2 B" w3 e0 ]- T

- g9 g! Z# x$ P6 B3 |结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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! \6 T% f4 c7 H9 g+ x8 H* @) `第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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