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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。; k1 f" ^; z% c1 R5 {7 w

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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率3 a. K+ ^! J, Y: k# e. i6 f
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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, ]. d. D' R2 D很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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: k- J- c4 \5 s  W答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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0 o8 u0 Y. K0 p+ u# r以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。( a8 Y, [: s/ \3 G) F7 b
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增值6 f% s5 V) d/ T4 Q1 ^! |& E; a' x

0 u+ P$ P3 t8 ~# K$ t( Z: `# C8 d7 M/ J许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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- R, [+ B& F" ?/ s你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?$ M) f) U- k/ @

) N9 i% j  `4 i4 S" [" |a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 ; l6 ^5 K, q! u$ k
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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  B  M) s2 D9 E; q9 }40%的机会你会收到150元的利润) h3 u8 k% b2 ]9 o( a% h
60%的机会你会一无所有
. V' [2 F7 u& q, r5 \8 ?4 U# V  ]预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
+ |# r0 I+ m& `: h: U1 G9 n由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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$ }. q* ^4 C8 s% [" i' w) _9 H增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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" a+ k! K1 I* O2 _1 v0 @, b基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。+ i. \- o6 R3 S, i
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)' Q' s) n5 H6 j' D9 L3 D$ ?

4 [  K" z4 ^9 R  l/ nA=博彩资金
" r* L5 o- \* u+ cP=获胜机会
; J8 ~1 M' \; l. T+ T! AO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)& a8 |: O9 Z  v! ?

$ H% K* n6 M% O& k( C首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。1 K; Q, s+ v1 I: c$ D& M
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 D. U# i' H4 Q3 e6 I1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)- L3 f: W6 @0 {: [/ r8 h4 q8 B

6 P4 k5 z+ y. f) ]; g3 z" NA=0, c2 G5 w5 P% m8 W  ~( R" t

3 p3 m* O4 Y& E" s( [" Q' `9 Y7 \结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢4 ]0 L* I2 z/ H! J. ], s4 q
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)# N2 p2 A: ^8 C: f# z' F

3 Q: s% Y1 }: m* U3 G. sA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)) N6 d) q) a5 U- L. M( @  l2 c# d5 i

* g: Z. u! h& N, p' R( ~; EA=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去# _4 Q8 L8 D  T; \3 ]& o8 ]5 ~

$ d) Y+ r, k, |: S/ z* C% x; z3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)9 Q: Y( y% B) G, @
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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2 F* L2 g# Y2 s) u* t  RA= -0.2
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; t, g4 C/ Z+ E0 W3 ]& q. Y& g, v* i结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好: q4 y% u  Q( |1 \; d1 o/ u

& U$ B+ g- n, S9 u) \1 n& [0 J9 e$ ~* n第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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