Array
(
[fid] => 6728
[description] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!
[password] =>
[icon] => 7c/common_6728_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[digest] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 0
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 1
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 3
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 加精华
[action] => digest
[fids] => 6966,6903,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] =>
[rules] => 1)发布主题帖+1经验+1活跃币,回贴+10华小分
2)Lv.1及其以上级别会员可以发布主题帖,Lv.1及其以上会员可以回帖
4)转帖请在主题上标明
5)禁止发布与本版块无关的主题(违反,帖子转移到相关版块,并扣50经验)
6)禁止回复与主题无关的帖子(违反,帖子删除,并扣10经验)
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[137] => 体育菠菜玩法规则
[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
[139] => 体育菠菜问题咨询
)
[icons] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 81 83 84 87 89 90 91 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 92
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] => 足球,篮球,体育,规则,打法
[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[sort] => 0
[orderby] => 2
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 5
[imagewidth] => 200
[imageheight] => 150
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 900
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6831
[type] => forum
[name] => 体育知识讲座
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 5
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 2735
[posts] => 23139
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 0
[rank] => 113
[oldrank] => 113
[lastpost] => 125127 升降盘理论 1741350473 france89
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 1
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 0
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 0
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 271 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
* z3 a: m' q" R+ U
) Z9 U' V" @# }( p
+ Q8 `6 x' k; f# K. j西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率4 E8 U- j5 P @2 i" _- G* v& p2 F
2 p2 O. K" d$ x& v- w* Y- }
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:" M' Q! w, T9 X2 Y7 y! M) L0 `
1 D4 l& d( F6 F皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 0 r0 S/ U% |$ X& r6 J
! [" D5 y2 M. g- b& l
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?2 J0 ]- l( W/ {* r. q8 v
, u8 E7 j' S# x, b8 c8 a% u. Z' e
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)" _" S% _. G5 y0 l+ O6 Q
4 T a$ x8 U( v+ ~, ?, k4 w1 t: D# R' ~1 i" w) M! A
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
+ W# }) G$ F; x& ~3 t8 v5 M
5 a R2 W, H$ @5 ?" `, t& a4 g& \! m6 a7 f4 f! j& e+ }% }& |% q4 C
盈利可能性2 O/ t5 E9 e8 S; \1 z( F0 Z6 f
1 `% O$ k# V7 L& M- J8 H+ E
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。4 A1 U2 E8 T, R% U% a( G% r6 U
2 [9 c- J( @5 X9 y* ~ O( v
增值
: ~1 I( T. R1 m) ]3 b5 R1 k# h' K! N3 z- k7 b X
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。/ w- {" f. Z8 R( Y( g" f5 F" l
* u7 ]0 Q; O) x( J/ n% U) `$ F你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
- }- u1 S. n4 ~- r4 i, ?2 G3 ^, J+ q- w5 G/ J0 x/ u8 V
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
" I, C( z+ I3 G" B) L
0 m% m! p3 Q5 G/ |3 T0 P9 E9 c6 h正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
( N. s) y$ R" X8 v' N- A
; ]# a# i* W" X40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
, M% d z+ |5 Y1 J/ ~60%的机会你会一无所有& l' V6 h! @% f" P6 \& k, @6 u
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 ! w4 G, O i) O% i0 `' s
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
# g! U8 p4 d3 c; Z8 Q
9 x3 e$ [7 V5 S6 p) f增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
6 C/ E/ h% K( Z1 F6 Z& [1 Q9 X1 h1 Y" C+ D g3 p
基于增值的投注
# `- R1 q$ L3 R7 }6 Q
& W( o4 L% L6 }. }& k凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
; g- Q/ Q8 q. F9 ], K( }/ G$ P" k- T! [ L: w* }; O$ s' n, ?9 i
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
% B# h* k7 }# ]& k) h( p6 m- g& a- n" T0 P# {
A=博彩资金
* t# y0 L' R9 s q: IP=获胜机会
, \) y: v1 m$ aO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)' t" {/ l' ?- i4 R
% j: k7 m3 {$ {2 ?; L5 ]+ i首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。! r7 A/ x% d' ~2 Y
8 ?8 Z. G" F( N: n9 \好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。+ _- J9 Z- i$ F# j3 y/ R
! Y9 m# U) n; q, x4 D" G1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)' s6 C2 t( a& L5 Z" W
3 |# e+ d& r, V1 R0 i5 [" `3 D) H8 nA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
6 p5 r8 \5 f+ h9 \+ v) ^+ Y& n1 G4 P; ?/ p
A=0
. ?8 d. Y2 @% v. v7 L$ x, N. w2 Y1 o) r" B+ D; x0 h( C. D- L
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢. @' V/ ]$ C' }1 x! {4 G; T2 b
; E) k' H+ d9 h) E/ Q2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
8 ~9 b0 a2 H; W$ ?* c% ]/ z9 a
. @( N) Y$ E4 p: BA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)) N& j( A: k+ L3 _& C. z# k
- L8 m9 J/ s! W w$ rA=0.1
: S# h. l! ]7 a: k1 w, q3 R k$ Q: @
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
& {- M" n: W1 o1 l9 p+ B' _+ s1 k) {0 e% U8 y
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
( t- ~& g/ ?; _+ y0 o! ~' o6 n% V- J9 ^1 D% V
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)2 w' S* z8 o/ I1 [5 @
! h, J e3 h* U" E1 r3 ?A= -0.2 7 v5 E/ m" W2 B" w3 e0 ]- T
- g9 g! Z# x$ P6 B3 |结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
' Q" P# R; B8 f" f' \
! \6 T% f4 c7 H9 g+ x8 H* @) `第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 968 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 800 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 7136 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 4235 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|