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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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. P+ C a2 J0 o* c3 D
9 S/ O, A5 t( P* I西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
: o4 P# o, \' h' \- u1 c* p
) m$ f+ g2 M3 D5 p- o& \' m以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
3 ]8 w+ O* ]% [% E9 B) [2 w& q1 _. p! P) D. a! I: R4 W
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% * L( N, F4 Y! _5 S C
) h4 R" A) q/ M8 Y4 X3 P' n2 l4 W很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?6 m0 \2 y6 q' V2 K5 [6 ^* @" ?
) P1 Z* H4 s/ A5 N. a+ d
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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, Q- p! p: v3 {/ x5 s4 `: C2 q以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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/ O% _7 P; u& Z% p7 G4 L" y5 g# t: A& a5 Q2 @
盈利可能性
* f1 w2 W3 l+ X" a2 A+ m2 Z/ m8 w' q% j+ v
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。4 q7 I" `8 u& h# R: c4 u" m- y0 G( ]
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增值+ `, L/ ^* n1 r. h
' Q& R+ K; P. Y4 A, n; q) D" c. I许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。! T; y; r) x9 g0 j) Z
# Y$ m& F1 a2 W% @5 a' X6 X你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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2 J: |- O: i( N/ ~4 [9 ^% r) G: _a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 4 E4 \# W% I' j% d& _8 B
- B8 j7 ]# |+ n正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么9 O T/ g8 q5 H( p& g! d9 l+ ]: @
+ l' }" o, ?4 Y& F
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
# P$ {8 y5 D. b3 O5 u q- `& ]60%的机会你会一无所有: m% f6 v+ j( Y5 Z# _8 i1 K5 {
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 ! _: Y" N, u- L i* Z4 Y* m
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。8 Z( m" T! t1 h# C. ~
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。7 [# d! V- E4 B" o6 W) P
- ]8 V N3 [6 S& f0 z+ S1 I# R) H# ~1 b基于增值的投注, N& a; F- G" |0 r2 C* _
J0 c6 \0 G+ ?& R1 b8 F1 S5 [; G" K( B: D凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)6 m8 i- r$ _9 k% ]% I9 B8 I$ |
$ @, a& D/ i& \* T6 c
A=博彩资金
9 l' r: F" t6 m6 k- nP=获胜机会, c( {4 p" D& q& V& n' `8 g" `& ^
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金); [* E2 p9 {* q1 J4 h
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。7 K4 B$ y+ U/ `% ~# j: _
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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. j0 g$ _! x+ g1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)+ g/ v7 C: o" l4 |% y- I
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5); i+ @) g2 |: _
5 A, ~3 G9 n1 R4 ?; F4 }) F
A=0% b0 C( [) L! [. |( A7 @
& f# F' r: z" f, E% _
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)8 z* Y# @: r+ }' }# M4 X# M
0 [2 j0 S# _6 {3 Z; H1 cA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)9 c8 o3 y( ]: J# D
8 l3 ]# d. v/ W9 LA=0.1
2 w/ {" ?9 T4 N/ |; e
* Y; ]! m! S! V9 B7 |结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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0 p9 H2 O, m" F. |3 M8 ^# R) b3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)! ^) C6 e( x1 r) m+ G: }: U8 q0 A
5 L; u' Z7 o+ B$ VA= -0.2
+ h6 N$ A; h* u* N9 P2 X
3 ?, F& _& O2 P# V结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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