×
Array
(
[fid] => 6728
[description] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!
[password] =>
[icon] => 7c/common_6728_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[digest] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 0
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 1
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 3
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 加精华
[action] => digest
[fids] => 6966,6903,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] =>
[rules] => 1)发布主题帖+1经验+1活跃币,回贴+10华小分
2)Lv.1及其以上级别会员可以发布主题帖,Lv.1及其以上会员可以回帖
4)转帖请在主题上标明
5)禁止发布与本版块无关的主题(违反,帖子转移到相关版块,并扣50经验)
6)禁止回复与主题无关的帖子(违反,帖子删除,并扣10经验)
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[137] => 体育菠菜玩法规则
[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
[139] => 体育菠菜问题咨询
)
[icons] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 81 83 84 87 89 90 91 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 92
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] => 足球,篮球,体育,规则,打法
[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[sort] => 0
[orderby] => 2
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 5
[imagewidth] => 200
[imageheight] => 150
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 900
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6831
[type] => forum
[name] => 体育知识讲座
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 5
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 2735
[posts] => 23139
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 0
[rank] => 113
[oldrank] => 114
[lastpost] => 125127 升降盘理论 1741350473 france89
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 1
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 0
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 0
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 271 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。; k1 f" ^; z% c1 R5 {7 w
# T0 @* X" W5 k1 R1 {6 t1 L) Q/ B d6 w! c2 x3 ~1 |
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率3 a. K+ ^! J, Y: k# e. i6 f
! o7 p b) a' q" C0 v8 r; w
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
3 Y8 B5 n1 g5 B4 L! i0 ~) e5 L, t* M- r( j
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
) n$ H& X0 g/ A# U
, ]. d. D' R2 D很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
/ g& }5 K* _4 i( R) E, l( A
: k- J- c4 \5 s W答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
: }% Y0 i: Y+ c2 K; L8 H) p R9 E" R# u. k9 k5 L( @2 H! W3 \
0 o8 u0 Y. K0 p+ u# r以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
: a4 t; N; P8 ]6 L( N" M C
( b) P2 l( U6 ]. I5 v# w/ m, D" ^/ u% l3 v" c: x: l
盈利可能性
1 S {: u" H+ X3 c3 r( w$ F) q4 S8 U9 _
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。( a8 Y, [: s/ \3 G) F7 b
& l' g3 q: |- c6 p' X
增值6 f% s5 V) d/ T4 Q1 ^! |& E; a' x
0 u+ P$ P3 t8 ~# K$ t( Z: `# C8 d7 M/ J许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
4 E: o/ W0 m8 G' R7 c" E) ]& ]
- R, [+ B& F" ?/ s你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?$ M) f) U- k/ @
) N9 i% j `4 i4 S" [" |a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 ; l6 ^5 K, q! u$ k
. r4 K: c$ H2 {' p& p
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
5 I o9 w- f- q3 d3 v$ d
B M) s2 D9 E; q9 }40%的机会你会收到150元的利润) h3 u8 k% b2 ]9 o( a% h
60%的机会你会一无所有
. V' [2 F7 u& q, r5 \8 ?4 U# V ]预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
+ |# r0 I+ m& `: h: U1 G9 n由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
0 ~/ X5 W4 I+ X( @" |
$ }. q* ^4 C8 s% [" i' w) _9 H增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
) S3 f& S1 r$ M1 v, ]8 N
" a+ k! K1 I* O2 _1 v0 @, b基于增值的投注
' W& J+ h* S3 l- N/ E2 d( P; |8 T3 _, b, f f) D$ a- o& m& @4 a+ y
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。+ i. \- o6 R3 S, i
1 _) I5 E5 Z+ L, G1 K( {1 u
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)' Q' s) n5 H6 j' D9 L3 D$ ?
4 [ K" z4 ^9 R l/ nA=博彩资金
" r* L5 o- \* u+ cP=获胜机会
; J8 ~1 M' \; l. T+ T! AO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)& a8 |: O9 Z v! ?
$ H% K* n6 M% O& k( C首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。1 K; Q, s+ v1 I: c$ D& M
^1 y) w, |& T) W' F
好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
! C$ b9 L6 C- L( m4 O& D. K
1 D. U# i' H4 Q3 e6 I1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
- D0 y3 Q* y* B) x0 O7 w; K6 t3 j' g* b
A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)- L3 f: W6 @0 {: [/ r8 h4 q8 B
6 P4 k5 z+ y. f) ]; g3 z" NA=0, c2 G5 w5 P% m8 W ~( R" t
3 p3 m* O4 Y& E" s( [" Q' `9 Y7 \结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢4 ]0 L* I2 z/ H! J. ], s4 q
3 G9 V' b, g& f
2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)# N2 p2 A: ^8 C: f# z' F
3 Q: s% Y1 }: m* U3 G. sA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)) N6 d) q) a5 U- L. M( @ l2 c# d5 i
* g: Z. u! h& N, p' R( ~; EA=0.1
% O/ c' W- o, p+ q; G( s+ M7 b4 G* N& l# W- {% F! e
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去# _4 Q8 L8 D T; \3 ]& o8 ]5 ~
$ d) Y+ r, k, |: S/ z* C% x; z3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)9 Q: Y( y% B) G, @
: a3 D4 C1 s7 }1 Z
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
4 }0 h7 W6 F8 @+ k' Z2 S% H- E9 J
2 F* L2 g# Y2 s) u* t RA= -0.2
7 m; P+ V' f" a8 p( E0 Y
; t, g4 C/ Z+ E0 W3 ]& q. Y& g, v* i结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好: q4 y% u Q( |1 \; d1 o/ u
& U$ B+ g- n, S9 u) \1 n& [0 J9 e$ ~* n第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 968 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 800 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 7136 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 4235 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|