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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 ( ~5 S$ }  p/ i& T8 M3 `$ s4 q

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只跟踪一个联赛
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔9 R8 p4 `  H8 U5 p' _8 }. ]$ q4 A$ s

. x0 x; X8 y* m- q; v三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，9 ~' t# p7 B' Q! ^( A: R; c
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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* I; c; [* ~4 j/ d# K8 d0 n1 s方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）+ \2 _) V6 B% z, N2 Q5 P
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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% ~& _4 H" b1 e( F6 @就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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9 w# V$ l1 E2 \1 n当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目) f& V# {3 F. n  e' o  g/ q" N
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% @) c0 Y8 J+ y; ]亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，0 e% ]; b6 r0 p0 B* _
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，3 f' v6 ~) {/ d. n1 l" `6 Z. D
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。/ I# N$ {7 `4 I+ c3 _2 T& r8 V
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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. J( B2 \& C; I/ k: b但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。8 K. ]& M2 N+ t8 U7 [

- `# p% n+ K4 k3 T" {: A' y在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。0 k; ^4 T) W* o* b. I- b6 W: |
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，4 ~  y% V3 X& k/ |. C

. L8 _' @; m+ I  ~8 F2 w* j( a回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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